Johnson departure - why, when, how, who & what next ?
JOHNSON DEPARTURE
- why, when, how, who & what next?(1000 words)
I have blogged bits of this in various places, so this blog post brings them together.
WHY? Boris Johnson is arguably the worst leader we could have at this time. Thousands of people have died unnecessarily because of his mistakes; thousands more will die. We also cannot start to fix the Brexit blunders while the Blunderer-in-Chief is in charge. He persistently resists scrutiny and will learn nothing.
#IDontBegPardon, we hear from him, which is why that's the title for our new book & CD.
A change of Prime Minister, has the potential to save thousands of lives, and that on its own is a good reason to hope for this and to work towards it. We could get a new Prime Minister who is focused on the real job, not on enriching incompetent cronies in the way that the National Audit Office report shows that Johnson's Government has done.
WHY WILL MPs SACK HIM?Most MPs want
(1) to retain their seats - that's why they voted Johnson in and
(2) to get promoted.
They elected an arch-Brexiter (Johnson) in 2019 because Brexit carried electoral advantage (small Leave majorities in a large number of constituencies, with Remain support more concentrated). The Brexit magic dust has been scattered and has no more electoral power.
Mid-term, they want promotion. 
Johnson is uniquely vulnerable because he does not draw people from all wings of the Party into Cabinet. Half of them know he will never promote them. 
And they may want a decent long run in a Government job before the next election
Johnson is uniquely vulnerable because he does not draw people from all wings of the Party into Cabinet. Half of them know he will never promote them. And they may want a decent long run in a Government job before the next election By the time we reach 2024, they surely would not want Johnson leading them, given his record of disastrous and bloody leadership. In 2019 he was the Fantasy of Magic Brexit.
Now he is the Phantom of Covid Death.
They could do better and they will know it.
Now he is the Phantom of Covid Death. They could do better and they will know it.(Some back-benchers are at the moment saying that Johnson is a different man 
after Cummings' 
departure; during this year they will find that is not true. The character and competence change 
they seek is not possible)
after Cummings' departure; during this year they will find that is not true. The character and competence change they seek is not possible) WHEN and HOW? The smartest time 
for Johnson to resign, from his point of view, is in the first 3 months of 2021, while he can make some vague claim of Brexit success, point to progress on vaccinations, and get out before the quarterly trade figures are published.
for Johnson to resign, from his point of view, is in the first 3 months of 2021, while he can make some vague claim of Brexit success, point to progress on vaccinations, and get out before the quarterly trade figures are published. My guess is that if he does not resign in this period then he will go on until there is a serious leadership challenge, and then possibly resign without contesting it. £300k a year for an hour's mindless scribble 
each week must be very tempting
each week must be very temptingA leadership challenge is most likely in 2022 in my view. That would leave Johnson dealing with the first wave of Brexit disaster, and dealing with the pandemic, (unless he resigns) but give the next leader a decent run at the job before 2024. Others may not be in a hurry to take the 2021 Poisoned Chalice 
unless he discards it.
unless he discards it. WHO?I don't believe it will be Gove,
or Patel as the next Tory Leader . The Tories don't elect "Tried and Failed Ignominiously Before" or "Disgraced but Unaccountably Not Sacked". They usually choose "Young and Untainted" - Theresa May was an exception in exceptional circumstances
or Patel as the next Tory Leader . The Tories don't elect "Tried and Failed Ignominiously Before" or "Disgraced but Unaccountably Not Sacked". They usually choose "Young and Untainted" - Theresa May was an exception in exceptional circumstances Raab does not I think have the intellect (another reason of course not to choose Patel). Same goes for Truss, Shapps, Jenrick. Eustice and others
Some fear Rees-Mogg, 
but the Tories know he is toxic to under-60s
but the Tories know he is toxic to under-60sRishi Sunak is an obvious front-runner.
I think for the greatest political competence you need to look at the Chairs of Select Committees (and of course the Intelligence & Security Committee) .
You have there mature and competent politicians that their colleagues trust - people like Tobias Ellwood, Tom Tugendhat, Julian Lewis - and indeed Jeremy Hunt. It's true that some of these don't have much Cabinet experience; I could imagine that a leadership ticket of Jeremy Hunt backed by several of these people, so that it was clear that they would form the Cabinet, might have mainstream Tory appeal. I know Hunt has tried for the leadership before and failed, but he might be the figure behind which some of these saner Tories unite, and that might make the difference.
You have there mature and competent politicians that their colleagues trust - people like Tobias Ellwood, Tom Tugendhat, Julian Lewis - and indeed Jeremy Hunt. It's true that some of these don't have much Cabinet experience; I could imagine that a leadership ticket of Jeremy Hunt backed by several of these people, so that it was clear that they would form the Cabinet, might have mainstream Tory appeal. I know Hunt has tried for the leadership before and failed, but he might be the figure behind which some of these saner Tories unite, and that might make the difference. WHAT THEN?Prime Ministers replaced by followers (like Johnson replaced by Sunak) tend to assume that their follower will continue in the departed PM's image. This never happens. The new person followed from "loyalty", not belief; the follower, was not a disciple. High achievers (in terms of level of appointment) don't generally go into politics to be a "Me Too" when they don't have to say "Me Too".
The new person wants to make their distinctive mark and they need to signal that in their first 3 months. 
All of this is of course very obviously the case if the new PM comes from outside the Cabinet, and in that case no-one should expect anything other than a significant change of direction 
BUT - WHY, AGAIN????Some say: we will go through all that and get someone just as bad or worse.
I don't believe we will. I do not think it will be Gove, Patel or Raab. I think there is a possibility of someone with quite a different mindset to Johnson
Am I certain of this? No - but there is no other way towards any improvement in our governance in the short term, unless the Government does something very unexpected.
The departure of Johnson has to happen in order for anything to improve in UK Governance. It does not guarantee a good outcome, but we certainly cannot hope for any improvement with Johnson in office
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HISTORICAL FOOTNOTEThe Tories change their leader between General Elections in the majority of cases looking at Post-War General Elections. Even when they have won, they change leader slightly more often than not. The ousted leader often had no idea a month before the challenge that they will be challenged.
The ousted leader often had no idea a month before the challenge that they will be challenged. When could that Leadership Challenge come? Am I correct to estimate 2022? Might it be earlier?
Are we ready to influence the choice?
The next article in my blog will explore possible letters to MPs which would make Johnson's replacement more likely.
Newsflash. --2021 has gone! Nothing more is going to happen in that year!
ReplyDeleteThat comment is true but a bit odd. The forecast I made in January 2021 that if Boris Johnson did not resign early in 2021 then he would be ousted in 2022 is a forecast that I see no reason to change.
ReplyDelete