Why severe impacts of covid will now get much much worse
Let’s just identify some conclusions which seem to be unavoidable 1. Cases are growing exponentially (eg doubling in two weeks) The ratios of cases to hospitalisation and of hospitalisations to deaths are much lower than in the second wave. But as soon as we say that there is a ratio, it follows that if cases grow exponentially, the other statistics do too, just from a lower base number. Don’t be misled by those graphs where the lines of hospitalisations and deaths seem to be growing at a slower rate. Hospitalisations lag cases, and deaths lag hospitalisations. Shift the lower lines to the left to recognise that lag, and their growth rates will look much worse 2. in fact hospitalisations do indeed seem to be doubling. ( “ I work in an NHS Covid ward – and I feel so angry“ Guardian article) 3. The government just hit the accelerator pedal. All the way. Floored it. All the restrictions gone. And one thing about this accelerator pedal is that when you push it to the floor, you can’