RE: The need to consider seriously how to implement the proposed Northern Ireland protocol (summarised 9 questions)


From: Mike Cashman <mike.cashman@actalpha.com>
Sent: 01 June 2020 12:16
To: 'iain.stewart.mp@parliament.uk' <iain.stewart.mp@parliament.uk>
Cc: 'mike.cashman@viewdelta.com' <mike.cashman@viewdelta.com>; 'michael.gove.mp@parliament.uk' <michael.gove.mp@parliament.uk>
Subject: RE: The need to consider seriously how to implement the proposed Northern Ireland protocol

Dear Iain
I am sure you have forwarded my lengthy email on the Northern Ireland  protocol, as you did with my first email to you on the subject,  and that you are awaiting a response. You may find it helpful to send this new email too to Michael Gove or whoever has Cabinet responsibility, since inclusion by “cc” may be ineffective.
I am not raising any new questions  here, but I thought it might be  helpful to have a summarised and almost stand-alone version.  Meanwhile my  fuller letters are below and also available at . https://viewdelta.blogspot.com/2020/05/re-need-to-consider-seriously-how-to.html
You may recall that I have  experience of managing the process of exchanging data via various systems  with 2000 customers of all sizes. While the NI protocol may be more complex and is certainly more time-pressured I think this gives me some insight.
The nine questions I wish to ask about the implementation of the Northern Ireland protocol are these:
Q1,  Has there been any progress on defining the required processes?
Q2   Has there been any progress on creating mechanisms to deliver the required processes?
Q3. Has there been any progress on defining consultation with  businesses on  the required processes?
Q4. Has a process of open business consultation started?
Q5. If as it  appears from public documents that UK mainland business s exporting to Northern Ireland are not included in the intended consultation, can plans be changed to include them?
Q6., If there is  a plan laying out timescales for preparation, consultation, publication, implementation by all parties, testing etc.; please provide details
Q7. In the light for example of Q6, what would be  a realistic timetable overall for Brexit Withdrawal  .
Q8 / Q9,  Please can you assure me that you have read this letter and will support an extension to the Transition Period?
If you do not support this, that would imply that you believed that the end of Transition in 2020 is  possible, which would imply that you can provide a plan of all necessary activities to the end of 2020, and in that case I would like to see this plan;   without this, any belief is just wishful thinking. )

You may know my views on the matter, but the above represents an enquiry as to what any feasible plan concluding in 2020 might be. Seven months since October 31st have been used with very little substantive  progress publicly declared on this particular matter, which is why I write to you to enquire if there is further news that has not yet been publicised. There is now only seven months to go.
When I was engaged in resolving project/programme management failures-in-progress (and that includes some Government projects/programmes but others too), I often applied a useful rule of thumb – “The past is not a perfect predictor of the future, but it is sometimes  the best we have”. If very little progress has been made in the last 7 months, that does not augur well for the next 7 months, and one reason is that in each case progress depends on realistic plans and effective relationships with the key stakeholders. Project reports that attributed past failures to these issues but assumed magical solutions to all problems invariably proved over-optimistic.  Let me apply the above rule of thumb. .   As a rough estimate, I would say that it appears that about 5% of the necessary work has been done but 50% of the time has been used, and at that rate of progress it would take another 11 years. I can re-estimate if there is better information about progress
Perhaps you and your colleagues can supply positive answers to the above questions. I would be happy to meet to discuss the matter.
Yours sincerely

Mike

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