The Brexit deal touted by Boris Johnson is impossible to deliver


Irrespective of what is the "best" politically, the question of technical feasibility should be considered.

The Withdrawal Agreement results in an unachievable timetable

Without considering the political desirability at all, in my view the new Withdrawal Agreement is unachievable in the time . The new proposals mean that there would be a new business need to track whether products coming into Northern Ireland are for consumption there, or export, or inclusion in manufacture, in which case the destination of the manufactured item becomes important. Indeed the item might become part of a unit which is not exported but which becomes part of a larger product which is exported.
This creates a need for new cross-organisational and cross-border disclosure and monitoring arrangements. There would need to be cross-organisational information systems, otherwise the administrative burden would be intolerable.

Disagreement about the requirement

EDIT: Questions would arise as the precise political requirement was identified. We know at present that the Prime Minister and the Brexit Secretary disagree about the requirement, which is a very bad indicator of being able to get crucial decisions made. Anyone who has had my experience of seeking to get Ministers to make decisions and finding that they "want to keep their options open" will appreciate the significance of this point.

Past success at similar projects?

You could as a yardstick investigate how often such a cross-industry business process with supporting information systems has been conceptualised, specified, designed, implemented within 14 months under British Government leadership. Or I can save you some time and propose that the answer is "never in any of our lifetimes".

What is involved?

If this was legislated, then it becomes a political promise which Civil Servants then have to implement, except that they can't - so the private sector would end up with plenty of contracts signed in a hurry, in the first case for establishing the feasibility of the whole scheme. If you were accountable for this arrangement then you would get that done before committing to it. Allow a year including the contracting as a rough minimum guess before you have a business model that you have consulted about, that business and government feel they can implement. This is not just the information system, it's the entire business process and business model.

The Strategic "Black Hole" project

Without that, you are just setting up for the "strategic black hole project" into which tens of millions of pounds are poured in the early stages wastefully, because it's top priority. I have seen this happen.
Sometimes the political pressure is to pour more money into a project to speed it up. But some projects cannot be accelerated beyond a certain pace. Have you ever asked nine women (and one or more men!) to make a baby in a month?

The Transition Period

And, remember that the expectation was that the transition period would be two years. The Government has treated deadlines as being the date by which deal wording must be agreed - but it is actually the date by which the agreement must be implemented. When you take that into account, two years seems tight. When senior management dictates that a project estimated to take two years should be done in a year, typically loads of money is poured in but the project fails, and needs to be completely restarted with a new realistic timescale, e.g. another two years or more after the failed project. Does this sound at all relevant to the implementation period for the proposed Withdrawal Agreement? An 11-month period is now being proposed.

My experience

All that I know about this is experience of managing inter-organisational information systems exchanging data with some 2000 organisations over a variety of protocols according to the size of the organisation - rather like what would be needed to enact the Government's proposals.

My view - your view?

So I do not know how the proposals would ever be implemented. We also know that no-one had any idea of this process at the start of the Merkel 30 days, and probably no idea either when the Benn Act passed which galvanised the UK Government into Deal action - remember Amber Rudd's resignation because the effort was all going into No-Deal? So either way that is not long enough for substantial feasibility work and cross-industry consultation to have happened.

I just thought that you might like to understand this viewpoint that the whole thing is totally infeasible in the timescale, If anyone thinks otherwise that has actually considered the practicalities then I would be interested to hear the rationale.

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