IT'S NOT 48% VERSUS 52%

IT'S NOT 48% VERSUS 52%
      (copied into the blog from where I first posted it - in "Brexit's a Trick not a Treat" Facebook page).

Who feels cheated by what's happened with Brexit?

I found myself pondering this question again in writing the foreword to "Brexit's a Trick, not a Treat", and in the work on designing the cover and talking to the designer.

Most people who voted Remain feel cheated for very well documented reasons, including the lies that were used during the campaign.

Those who voted Leave may well feel cheated, because they are not seeing what was promised to them in return for their votes ( "easiest trade deals in history", money for the NHS etc,)

We should not demonise those who disagree with us.
At the time of writing, the outcome is still undetermined, largely because those who support to Leave cannot agree on what sort of Leave they feel would fulfil the wishes that they now have. There are still differing views - people who support Remain, or Deals of various sorts, or No Deal.

I have many times written, in response to Remain rants, in support of the Leavers - I didn't originate this phrase, but I think it's useful "Those who supported Leave are our friends and family". Remainers can be encouraged to love them, listen to them, try to understand their viewpoints, and if we do we may reach agreement. I tend to accompany this with "Those who misled the public deliberately during the referendum campaign should in my view be debarred from public office, but in practice we must rely on the voters to apply their sanctions."

We should not view this as the 48% versus the 52%, or whatever the percentages are after the effects of people changing their minds, as they are entitled to, and of demography. A reasonable case can be made to say that 99% or more of people have been cheated by the Brexit process, with that cheating having been undertaken by less than 1% of the population. That small minority includes those who made so much money from the crash of the pound in 2016, and includes those who have bet £8 billion on a No Deal and the damage it would cause to the British economy in 2019.

There is also a tactical consideration. I often see comments such as "Nothing you can say can persuade a Leaver to change their mind" or indeed "Nothing you can say will persuade a Remainer to change their mind". But remember the way that Dominic Cummings characterised the population in the Brexit documentary. One third are convinced Remainers – campaigners may as well ignore them, because they will never change their minds. Similarly one third are convinced Leavers. It is the one third in the middle whose votes and opinions may determine what happens. You can argue about the exact percentages , and maybe opinions have polarised more than in 2016, but I would suggest for a start that many who have changed their mind may well be in the middle group.

Let's meet for discussion in the middle. I find for example that useful initial common ground is to agree that what has been done as a result of the referendum vote has been something of a shambles. I mean no disrespect to hard-working MPs who have attempted to do their duty, But in my view there has been a failure of leadership and I have written about this elsewhere. Anyway this can often be agreed common ground between people who have different overall political views. So let's listen to each other.

Unreasoned argument and abuse comes from the convinced 1/3. There may indeed be no possibility of convincing this one third and no point in attempting to do so. But those are not the people to convince, whatever your viewpoint. Some of the people to be convinced may not be on Facebook or Twitter, because they may be fed up with unproductive debate happening there. But they may be beside you in the bus queue, opposite you in the train, at the next table in the café, beside you at the bar in the pub and there may be conversations to be had. Let us engage, listen, understand, and then we may find that we have more in common than we realise.
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And - just an idea - seeing the funny side of some of the Brexit events could open up a little discussion - so the book "Brexit's a Trick not a Treat" might just help with that. It can even remind you of the events of 2016-2019 (up to proroguing).
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